Today, an abundance of data and increasingly sophisticated algorithms have led to a proliferation of forecasts predicting lobster abundance, landings, and habitat change. But these projections don’t exist in a vacuum: They are interpreted within different social contexts and can shape real-world management decisions.
For example, Maine lobster fishers who lived through dire predictions of collapse in the 1970s and 80s are likely to be more skeptical of current forecasts depending on how the predictions are communicated.
“People’s reactions to forecasts are just as interesting as the forecasts themselves,” said Nick Record, senior research scientist and director of the Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting. “Forecasting the ocean isn’t just scientific—it’s social.”
Record is the lead author on a new paper exploring the history of lobster outlooks to identify lessons for the future of ecological forecasting.
The team examined how lobster forecasts have evolved and how they have been acted on using news archives, historical landing data, oceanographic data, and archival quotes capturing industry responses. Together, the data illuminate how to make forecasts most useful in an increasingly unpredictable environment.
Their analysis highlights the importance of considering historical and sociocultural contexts when communicating forecasts, particularly when those forecasts inform decisions about fishing efforts, boat investments, pricing, and other consequential aspects of the fishery.
The Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting recently took ownership of the National Ocean Economics Program (NOEP), which provides accessible economic and social data on the health and value of oceans and marine resources. This study offers one example of how these social data can be paired with scientific information to help the public understand changes in these ecosystems and how they will impact coastal communities.
“If we want to understand the ocean’s future, we have to understand its past, both in terms of the oceanographic and socioeconomic dynamics,” Record said.
Read the full paper in the journal FACETS. The project also features Research Associate Johnathan Evanilla and Senior Research Scientist Maya Groner, as well as partners at the University of Maine and the University of Victoria.
